The U.S. copper scrap market is set for a decade of robust expansion, driven by electrification, renewable energy deployment, infrastructure modernization, and growing adoption of circular-economy policies. Quantitative analysis indicates that the domestic market, valued at approximately $10.8 billion in 2025, is expected to reach $15 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of around 7%, with continued growth through 2035 as secondary copper increasingly supplements primary production.
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Market Size and Growth Trajectory
The U.S. copper scrap market has experienced steady growth over the past five years, with annual collection volumes surpassing 1.3 million metric tons in 2024. Forecasting through 2035, total domestic copper scrap consumption is expected to rise to 1.9–2.0 million metric tons, driven by higher industrial demand and improved collection efficiency.
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2025: Market value: ~$10.8B; scrap volume: ~1.35M MT
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2030: Market value: ~$15B; scrap volume: ~1.7M MT
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2035: Market value: ~$19B; scrap volume: ~2M MT
The projected growth reflects both price and volume factors. With copper prices expected to remain elevated in real terms, secondary copper will become increasingly attractive for manufacturers seeking cost-effective and sustainable sources.
Demand Drivers with Quantitative Impact
1. Electric Vehicles and Charging Infrastructure
EV production is projected to grow from 2 million vehicles in 2025 to over 5 million vehicles annually by 2035. Copper usage per EV is approximately 80 kg per vehicle, compared to 20 kg for traditional vehicles. This implies incremental copper demand of 240,000–400,000 metric tons annually from EVs alone by 2035, providing a substantial market for scrap suppliers.
2. Renewables and Grid Modernization
Deployment of solar and wind power is expected to expand by 10–12 GW per year, with copper intensity averaging 5 tons per MW installed. Grid modernization initiatives—including transmission upgrades—require an estimated 120,000 metric tons of copper annually, much of which can be partially met through recycled scrap, reducing dependence on primary imports.
3. Infrastructure and Industrial Use
The U.S. plans to invest over $1.2 trillion in infrastructure projects over the next decade. Copper-intensive sectors such as commercial construction, electrical systems, and industrial machinery are projected to account for roughly 35–40% of scrap demand, translating to an incremental 150,000–200,000 metric tons of scrap per year.
Supply-Side Dynamics
Collection Efficiency
Current scrap recovery efficiency is estimated at 70–75%, with urban mining and electronics recycling contributing an increasing share of the feedstock. With improvements in sorting and pre-processing, recovery rates could reach 85% by 2030, increasing available secondary copper supply by 200,000 MT annually.
Refining Capacity
Existing U.S. smelters process approximately 1.2 million MT of scrap annually, with planned capacity expansions adding 300,000–400,000 MT by 2030. These upgrades will allow domestic scrap to supply up to 25% of total U.S. refined copper demand by the end of the decade.
Price Dynamics
Copper prices have averaged $9,000–$10,000 per metric ton in recent years. Scenario analysis suggests that if prices remain above $10,500 per ton, scrap collection becomes highly profitable, incentivizing faster recycling and investment in processing infrastructure.
Policy and Circular Economy Impact
Federal and state-level incentives are projected to increase copper recovery volumes by 15–20% over the next decade. Initiatives targeting e-waste, cable reclamation, and building deconstruction are expected to generate 50,000–70,000 MT of additional scrap annually by 2030, creating a more resilient domestic supply chain.
Risks and Constraints Quantified
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Collection bottlenecks: Lagging municipal recycling could reduce scrap availability by 50,000–80,000 MT per year.
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Substitution risk: Increased aluminum use in wiring and components could offset 5–10% of secondary copper demand in certain sectors.
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Price volatility: A 10–15% drop in copper prices could compress margins and delay investment in refining capacity by 1–2 years.
Strategic Implications
For Scrap Processors
Investments in automated sorting, pre-processing, and logistics could improve yield by 5–7%, translating into 50,000–70,000 MT additional scrap output annually.
For Refiners
Upgrading to low-emission, high-throughput furnaces can increase output by 20–25% per facility, meeting higher demand without relying on imported feedstock.
For Manufacturers
Incorporating 15–25% recycled copper in production lines can reduce raw-material costs by $200–$300 per MT, while contributing to ESG compliance and sustainability targets.
For Policymakers
Encouraging municipal take-back programs and standardizing scrap collection could increase national recovery volumes by 10–15%, equating to 100,000–120,000 MT of additional scrap annually.
Conclusion
Quantitative projections indicate that the U.S. copper scrap market will expand from $10.8 billion in 2025 to $19 billion by 2035, supported by EV growth, renewable-energy deployment, and policy-driven recycling incentives. Annual scrap volumes are expected to rise from 1.35 million MT to around 2 million MT, making secondary copper an essential pillar of U.S. manufacturing and energy infrastructure.
With targeted investments in collection, processing, and refining, the U.S. can capture the economic and environmental benefits of a more circular copper economy. The 2025–2035 window represents a decisive period where data-driven strategies will define how effectively secondary copper supports the nation’s electrification and infrastructure ambitions.
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