Fangraphs gives each current division leader at least a 60% chance of maintaining that lead through the end of the regular season, per their latest . Not all of those chances are equal, however, and two division leaders are far le s likely to hold onto their title than the rest. One is the Blue Jays, who around 45% of MLBTR readers view as likely to hold onto Arshdeep Bains Jersey the division as of . The other is the Astros, who took control of the division off the back of a dominant 19-7 month of June but since then have struggled to keep pace. Theyre 26-29 since the start of July and 16-21 since July 24. Houstons managed to fend off the Mariners and Rangers in the AL West until now, however, and actually has a larger lead (three games) over Seattle now than they did in mid-August, when they were briefly tied for the division lead at one point. That rebound in recent weeks has helped them stay afloat, but theres still cause for concern. What was once a dominant front two in the rotation has now dropped to one; while is still excelling amid a campaign thats likely to earn him legitimate consideration for the Cy Young award, is struggling badly of late with an ERA north of 6.00 since the start of August. The bullpen took a major hit when was sidelined by a sprained shoulder, and the lineup simply isnt scoring enough runs. The Astros are 29th in the majors since the start of August when it comes to runs scored, and 21st since the start of July. hasnt sustained his strong start to the year, and are on the injured list, and is no longer hitting like a potential MVP candidate. All of those flaws in the roster have left Houston vulnerable, and their +14 run differential is not just lower than those of the Mariners and Rangers, its the lowest of any team currently in playoff position. With six games against Texas and three more against Seattle still on the schedule for September, theyll need to duke it out with those teams outright in order to hold onto the division. That provides an opportunity for those clubs to make up a lot of ground in a relatively short amount of time. And with the toughest strength of schedule remaining in the division, Houston cant nece sarily bank on cleaning up against weaker teams in their other games. All of that may make it seem as though the Astros have their work cut out for them if they want to hold onto their lead in the AL West. While that could certainly be true, its not as if they dont also have significant advantages working in their favor. For one thing, much of that rough injury luck has been balanced out by other players returning. and , in particular, figure to be impactful pieces for Houston down the stretch. And while players like Smith and Pena have cooled off to varying degrees, and have turned back the clock in the second half after tough starts to the season. is already hitting better now that hes back in Houston than he had been in Minnesota, and perhaps a veteran core of Altuve, Walker, Correa, and Alvarez will be able to turn things around for the offense over the seasons final month. The other thing working in Houstons favor is the reality that Seattle and Texas arent exactly behemoths, either. While the Mariners lineup has put up respectable numbers led by , , and , their vaunted starting rotation has looked much more vulnerable this season than in previous years. Theyll get help from a flimsy schedule that pits them against the likes of St. Louis, Colorado, and Atlanta over the seasons final weeks, but without and posting better numbers than their league-average season figures, that might not be enough. As for the Rangers, injuries to , , and have dismantled the teams veteran core for the foreseeable future. The lo ses of Semien and Seager, in particular, are forcing them to rely on a far le s reliable group of position players for the stretch run as they look to take advantage of their aforementioned six games against the Astros this month. How do MLBTR readers view Houstons odds of making it to October with the AL West crown in hand? Will their veteran core be able to score enough runs going forward, or will the Mariners or perhaps even the Rangers sneak in to take over? Have your say in the poll below: Will the Astros win the AL West? Yes 57.81% (1,951votes) No 42.19% (1,424votes) Total Votes: 3,375 Gino Odjick Jersey