Forecasting the future of the aircraft engine MRO market involves understanding both macro-drivers and industry shifts. Market Research Future provides a roadmap:

Quantitative Forecasts

  • Base Value (2023): USD 23.5 billion
  • 2024 Estimate: USD 24.1 billion 
  • 2030 Forecast: USD 34.5 billion 
  • CAGR (2024–2030): 4.80%. 
  • In a longer horizon, MRFR projects a 5.54% CAGR from 2024 to 2035, as the industry matures and newer trends embed deeper. 

Key Forecast Assumptions & Risks

  • Sustained Air Travel Demand: The forecast assumes that global passenger growth remains strong, with airlines expanding routes and fleets.
  • Regulatory & Safety Pressures: Stricter engine life limits, safety audits, and compliance requirements may force more frequent overhauls, benefiting MROs.
  • Technological Disruption: The adoption of predictive maintenance, digital twins, advanced materials, and engine health monitoring is likely to reshape cost structures and margins.
  • Regional Shifts: Asia-Pacific is forecast to lead, thanks to rising aviation demand and cost competitiveness in MRO services. North America and Europe remain important in terms of high-end, advanced service capabilities. 
  • Risk Factors: Economic slowdowns, fuel price shocks, supply chain disruptions, or regulatory changes (e.g., emissions mandates, alternative propulsion) may dampen growth.

Strategic Forecast Highlights

  • Vertical Integration & Joint Ventures: OEMs and airlines might increasingly integrate MRO operations or establish partnerships to capture more service value.
  • Service Diversification: MRO players may expand into adjacent services — e.g. engine leasing, on-wing support, engine upgrades or modifications.
  • Data-Driven Business Models: With IoT and embedded sensors, engine OEMs may shift toward “power-by-the-hour” or performance-based maintenance contracts, increasing aftermarket predictability and recurring revenues.

In sum, the forecast for aircraft engine MRO is cautiously optimistic: solid mid-single digit growth, tempered by technological disruption and macro uncertainties. The 2030 and 2035 milestones offer valuable guideposts for strategic planning.